THE ELEPHANT IN HUT 8

Nobody expected the challenges that everybody knew were coming

Artificial Intelligence was front and center at Bletchley Park last week, with the UK hosted AI Safety Summit exploring how regulators might prevent existential threats and/or future disasters. The focus seemed to be very much on the threats to civilization from synthetic pathogens and acts of aggression enabled by AI, and the extent to which regulators can poke around inside models to assess the threat.

 “We are thrilled to host the world’s first AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park. As a site that has witnessed the power of human intelligence, emerging technology and collaboration, we recognise the importance of ensuring that AI technology is developed and deployed in a safe and ethical manner. We are incredibly excited to provide the stage for discussions on global safety standards, which will help everyone manage and monitor the risks of artificial intelligence” Iain Standen, CEO of the Bletchley Park Trust.

As an aside if you want to scare yourself about the threats posed by AI and synthetic biology (and more), we recommend ‘The Coming Wave’ by Michael Bhaskar and Mustafa Suleyman

What seemed to be missing from last week’s meeting of politicians, tech bros, academics and other assorted experts was much of a discussion about the more mundane, prosaic and we believe pressing issue of job displacement. But it is exactly this which offers just as much of a threat to the stability of society in the short to near term. We have seen it described as a “known challenge”, but knowing it is a challenge is one thing … actually assessing its likely impact and potential responses is something else entirely.

We hear that the future belongs to those who will ‘upskill‘, but what does that actually mean. How and where should they be upskilling? In reality, it isn’t just about sharpening up thinking skills and being a bit more creative and adding a little bit of edge to what we’re currently doing. We are now staring down the barrel of a fundamental overhaul of what constitutes valuable skills which may lead you to a very difficult place as a society.

Of course, billionaire Elon Musk (in conversation with multi-millionaire Rishi Sunak) hilariously brought the issue of AI and your job onto the agenda when he said that AI will one day take away your need to work.

“There will come a point where no job is needed […] you can have a job if you want to have a job for personal satisfaction, but AI will be able to do everything” Elon Musk

When you start to think about it, that’s a real can of worms.

When you are worth $225 billion (in Elon’s case) or £500m (in the case of the Sunaks), it is quite possible to have a job only because it entertains you, but for most people on the planet, this is not the case.

Will businesses offer you the opportunity to do a job for reasons of personal satisfaction, when that job can be done faster and cheaper by an AI system? This leads you into the question of what is the purpose of a business? In this debate we also have to consider the distinction between AI as an enabler and AI as a substitute. There is a school of thought that says that “AI won’t replace people—but people who use AI will replace people who don’t”. This holds out the hope that as long as we can use AI (or we can learn to use AI) then there will be a role for us in the future workplace. So the mantra of positivity goes, enlightened organizations will see a rise in productivity through a work enhancing human-AI symbiosis.  This does seem to be the view of the British Government

"We should look at AI much more as a co-pilot than something which is necessary going to replace someone's job. AI is a tool that can help almost anybody do their jobs better, faster, quicker” UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak

However, the early evidence suggests that this position might not hold for very long and that the world of knowledge work may quickly move to a position that is much more aligned with Elon Musk’s view that … ““There will come a point where no job is needed […]AI will be able to do everything”

Even if AI doesn’t ‘do everything’, in reality the numbers of people needed in this human-AI symbiosis will be far, far fewer, and that whilst initially your job may well be lost to someone who knows how to use AI …  this is just an interregnum before it is likely lost to AI.

So assuming that profit maximizing businesses aren’t going to offer employment for entertainment purposes – and that they can reduce costs (without decreasing efficiency) by switching their investment from labor to capital … what kinds of jobs will be available to us? What is the competition for each of these jobs? And as good salaried ‘knowledge worker’ jobs become harder to come by, how will we support ourselves? By what mechanism?

“We need to boost our skills to make ourselves AI-ready!” What on earth does this mean?

“People should not be worried about the impact of AI on jobs because education reforms will boost skills. […] That is my answer in a nutshell, that's why I don't want people to be worried, because we are building a world-class education system." Rishi Sunak

Currently developing a world class education system means introducing a new qualification for all school leavers in England – the Advanced British Standard, including some English and math to 18; efforts to improve technical training; and plans to boost adult education. This “would ensure that the UK could reap the benefits of AI economically".

I don’t even know where to start with that. There has been no meaningful national discussion about what the world of work and the AI-shaped workplace will look like, which must surely be a precursor to the redesign of any education system. A system which must include not only schools and colleges but the university sector as well.

We would like to think that everyone can adapt by acquiring new skills but some may be struggling, and we also need to think about what kind of societal support we provide for those that can’t make the AI trip.

Much has been said about the role of Universal Basic Income … but we respectfully suggest you look at the math, and decide what is possible? FYI the UK’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme ran for about 19 months … 11.7 million employee jobs were furloughed for some period during that time, at a total scheme cost of £70 billion. We couldn’t afford to replicate this for another 6 months … let alone making this a permanent fixture. There was a recent UBI pilot in two areas of the UK with some people given £1,600 a month to live on - now assuming this is only given to households (and not individuals) and that it is truly universal, the cost of rolling this out to the 28m plus households in the UK would be half a trillion pounds a year. And of course, you have a double whammy with UBI, as with fewer people in work, you have a smaller tax base with which to cover the cost. That’s not to say that there are not other variants or solutions, but we don’t see the state paying us a living wage if Elon Musk’s prediction is true.

“The challenge of AI is so big and the development is exponential, which means there is no luxury to put it aside and focus on something else” Marija Pejčinović Burić, Secretary General of the Council of Europe

There are so many questions and unknowns. Where is the forum in which we can identify the challenges and consider the implications? We know that the Bletchley AI security summit will be followed by security summits in South Korea in mid-2024 and France in late-2024, but we need to urgently consider what the AI shaped knowledge workplace of the future will look like, the impact on jobs and society more broadly and, beyond political platitudes, how we engineer a primary, secondary and tertiary education system that gives us humans the best chance of staying relevant.